Fengman Think Tank丨Dajing
Popcorn movies are not selling well.
Rao is a blockbuster like "Spider-Man: Far From Home" that is filled with Marvel's feelings, and it has not been able to maintain a strong growth momentum for too long. On the eighth day of its release, its single-day box office was The Laogang movie "Sweeping Drugs 2 Heaven and Earth Showdown" (hereinafter referred to as "Sweeping Drugs 2") overtook it, and has been suppressed by the latter ever since. Under the joint strangulation of the two, the Hollywood animation blockbuster "The Secret Life of Pets 2", which was released on the same day as "Sweeping Drugs 2," eclipsed the box office of just over 90 million in five days, in sharp contrast with the popularity of the North American market. Maoyan Professional predicts that its mainland box office will be 169 million, but just three years ago, the first part of the series also swept 388 million box office in the mainland.
Throughout the mainland film market in the past few years, it is not difficult to capture a trend-the ability of Hollywood blockbusters to "catch gold" is declining, and domestic movies The years of being crushed by imported products are gone, the market is maturing, competition is becoming more intense, audiences are becoming rational, and the "routines" used by Hollywood assembly lines are becoming less and less effective.
Hollywood blockbusters’ ability to “catch gold” has declined, and the box office and word-of-mouth binding have deepened
Maoyan Entertainment recently released the "Data Insights for the First Half of 2019" report. It is worth noting the analysis of imported movies. The report shows that the box office of imported movies with more than 9 points in the first half of the year accounted for as much as the total box office of imported movies. 69%, movies with a score of 6-6.9 have no room for "survival", while in the same period last year, movies with a score of 8.5-8.9 were the main box office, accounting for about half of the total box office; in the same period of 2017, 8.0-8.4 points And movies below 8 points still occupy a certain market share.
Maoyan, as a ticketing platform, is highly linked to the public's ticket buying behavior. Its score directly reflects the ticket-buying group’s viewing choices and judgment on the quality of the movie. Therefore, the author believes that the conclusions in the report can Representing market trends:
"Imported movie ratings are highly correlated with box office, HollywoodThe film also needs to be of good quality".
As for the single-film performance in the first half of the year, the relaunch of the Transformers series "Bumblebee" has a cumulative box office of 1.147 billion. Marvel’s first heroic movie "Captain Marvel" with a female protagonist has a cumulative box office of 1.033 billion, and "Alita: Battle Angel" blessed by the great god Cameron has a cumulative box office of 895 million.Legendary Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures jointly created the "Monster Universe" series of masterpieces "Godzilla 2: King of the Monsters" with a cumulative box office of 932 million, Disney animated live-action "Aladdin" with a cumulative box office of 367 million, "Thunder Shazan! "X-Men: Black Phoenix" and "Men in Black: Global Pursuit" went down. The cumulative box office of the three so far is 294 million, 407 million, and 306 million.
In other words, in the high hopes of Hollywood A-level productions, except for "Avengers 4: Endgame" (hereinafter referred to as "Avengers 4"), the box office of other blockbusters None of the performances exceeded expectations. The 1.5-3 billion box office segment was "vacuum", and there were many other pieces of work.
The view that word-of-mouth and box office "go hand in hand" has been best confirmed. From the more stringent Douban scoring system, Douban 8The .6 points of "Reunion 4" swept the market, and the remaining 6-8 points of blockbusters were quite satisfactory and the bottom rated "Thunder Shazan!" "X-Men: Black Phoenix" and "Men in Black: Global Hunt" also performed the worst at the box office.
In the past, there were often dark horses in Hollywood animation films, but "Detective Pikachu"'s moderate reputation also failed to inspire "PokemonThe market potential of "Dream" IP. Among the imported movies, on the contrary, several small-cost batches of "Green Book", "Why Is Home" and "The Tuner" counterattack with high reputation and shine.
Once, holding up the Hollywood sign can easily gather mainland audiences, and the mainland movie market has also lived in the fear of being dominated by Hollywood for a long time. From the situation in the first half of this year, the ability of Hollywood blockbusters to earn money and the reputation of films are truly Achieved deep binding.
Superheroes, special effects scenes, American values, the "three-axes" circle of money was once popular
Don’t look at it now Word-of-mouth and box office "go hand in hand". In the past, it was often "opposite." In the past few years, there were many Hollywood blockbusters with good reputation at the box office.
2010, "Avatar", which pioneered the 3D era of global movies, has triggered a wave of movie watching after its release in the Mainland, winning 1.339 billion box office. The second place "Tangshan Earthquake" is less than half of "Avatar". The total box office can only break through the tens of billions mark. In other words, a blockbuster "Avatar" contributed 13% of the annual share.
"Jade" is in front, and since then, Hollywood 3D blockbusters "in droves" flooded the mainland market, "War of the Gods", "Creation: War of the Years", "Wrath of the Gods", "Alien Battlefield", and "Lost Battle" A large number of movies with Douban scores below 7 points, such as "The Realm", "Transcendent Hacker", "Robot", and "Global Storm", without exception, have won more than 100 million box office. Take the 6.3-point "Robocop" as an example. After it was released in the mainland, it earned 329 million box office revenue, accounting for 20% of the film's global box office.
The mainland audience's "not picking and choosing" makes Hollywood circle the money and the bottom line is completely lost. "Loop Messenger", "Iron Man 3", "Transcendental Hacker", "Superbody", and "The Bourne" 5 "2012", "Robocop", "Blade Runner 2049" and so on have even launched a special 3D version for the mainland.
IP series movies are even more capable of collecting money. Due to their own traffic attributes and topical popularity, even quality Worrying, I can always like to boost the eye-catching box office results.For example, the Douban score of "Transformers 5: The Last Knight" released in 2017 was only 4.9, and the cumulative box office in the Mainland reached 1.551 billion, ranking sixth in the year ; "Resident Evil: The Final Chapter" released in the same year scored 6.5 on Douban, with a cumulative box office of 1.109 billion; in 2018The screened "Jurassic World 2: The Lost Kingdom" has a Douban score of 6.7 and a cumulative box office of 1.695 billion, ranking ninth in the year.
Even if the reputation and box office in North America are not ideal, they can still make a "turnaround" in the mainland. For example, "Xtreme Agent: The Ultimate Return" won over 1 billion box office in the mainland.
"People are stupid and have a lot of money", and the mainland market has become a good place for Hollywood to make money. In order to better "play" the Chinese market, Hollywood blockbusters continue to add Chinese elements and enable Chinese stars. At the same time, under the demand for breaking through the quota system, Hollywood has introduced Chinese capital for co-production. In the past two years, many blockbusters have even adopted the release strategy of pre-release in mainland China. For example, the release time of "Reunion 4" in mainland China was two days earlier than North America. All signs indicate that Hollywood is determined to win the mainland market.
Previously, with a mature industrial system and standardized high-speed production, as well as precise control of the audience’s mentality of watching movies, and active integration into the market, Hollywood is indeed The mainland rarely misses.
However, with more and more blockbusters entering the mainland screen, after the freshness has passed, Hollywood's "formula" for sweeping the global market has also surfaced. In the final analysis, it is concentrated on three points. ——Superheroes, special effects scenes and American valuesView. The "sameness" of the story, vision, and core has seriously overdrawn the brand value, "lack of novelty, all routines", and more and more mainland audiences fall into the aesthetic fatigue of Hollywood content.
Hollywood has entered the stage of “life and death by word-of-mouth” with the appearance and content of "nothing less"
Luo Dayou once complained to Xu Zhiyuan : "Why? Hollywood is shooting some Superman, Spider-Man, and Iron Man. Why do you have such a big collection, it seems that the real human creativity is exhausted. Everyone is desperately trying to make resources fast The application, rapid investment, and rapid return."
The "fastness" of Hollywood referred to by Luo Dayou has become a thing of the past in my opinion.
Of course, in the Mainland, imported films still play the role of "rescuing the market" and "supporting the market". According to the "First Half of 2019" released by Maoyan Entertainment "Data Insight", as of June 30, 2019, the total box office for the year was 31.167 billion yuan, of which domestic films accounted for 50.5% and imported films accounted for 49.5%. Except for February, which covers the Spring Festival, the first half of the year The box office champions of other months have been taken over by imported films, and it is especially goodThe Lywood blockbuster contributed a lot.
But through the above analysis, it is not difficult to find that, compared to the past, the "commercial flattery" of Hollywood blockbusters by mainland audiences has come to an end, and the era of "three tricks" to make money Also began to flip.
In the North American market, Hollywood is also facing a bottleneck period. The most direct manifestation is the poor performance of IP series movies and the disappearance of original popular movies. As of June 30, North American box office revenue was 56.16. Billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, and emerging streaming media such as Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu are also impacting the "industrial system" established during Hollywood's high-speed operation for many years.
At the same time, the emergence of "Wandering Earth" means that the types of domestic movies are becoming more diversified, and the quality of content and industrial technology are greatly improved Promotion. The mainland audience’s choice of "blockbuster" is no longer limited to Hollywood. Word of mouth is the only criterion that drives movie viewing.
The appearance and content are indispensable, and the highlights fade away. Later, Hollywood finally stood on the same starting line as domestic movies: content is king, and word of mouth will determine life and death.