House prices will go from 8000 to 4000! Experts began to “see the wind and make the rudder“ boldly predict!

2020-08-01 10:25:13 0 Comment 900 views
abstract

Is it difficult to study the property market? I can only give an ambiguous answer to this question: difficult and not difficult. It’s difficult to say

Is it difficult to study the property market? I can only give an ambiguous answer to this question: difficult and not difficult. It’s difficult to say. Complicated inventory, local auctions, and demographic data, from the macro atmosphere and general trend, to the meso-scale industry enthusiasm, the boom of real estate companies and intermediaries, and even the micro-scaling, can be said to be proficient. It is indispensable. It's easy to say that it's also easy. Just like what experts have done since the beginning of 2019, it is better to call it "follow the trend", and to say that it is awkward is to "see the wind".

House prices will go from 8000 to 4000! Experts began to “see the wind and make the rudder“ boldly predict!

A netizen in a fourth-tier city said that they are there The house price rose to the highest peak of 8,000 yuan per square meter in 2016. You need to rush to buy a house, but since the second half of 2018, buyers have startedIt has gradually decreased. Now the house price has dropped to 4,000 yuan per square meter, and there will be discounts for the full price. However, if you look at the sales office, you can hardly see people who buy a house. Those who bought a house are not willing to have a price drop. Those who did not buy a house simply Don't worry, the real estate market is lifeless, information about selling houses is everywhere, and the streets are filled with intermediaries hanging houses. Many people can't believe it.

House prices will go from 8000 to 4000! Experts began to “see the wind and make the rudder“ boldly predict!

Former Director of the National Bureau of Statistics Qiu Xiaohua said that supporting real estate growth The demand factor of is still a considerable amount, and the real oversupply will not occur until at least 10 years later. By then, the real estate market may undergo a real turning point. Of course, the promotion of urbanization is also indispensable to the promotion of real estate. The two are mutually reinforcing.. The author believes that, especially for first- and second-tier cities, the fundamentals supporting housing prices have not changed.

House prices will go from 8000 to 4000! Experts began to “see the wind and make the rudder“ boldly predict!

Let’s take a house of 1 million as an example, and buy a house Calculated in two ways, renting a house, if the house's annual increase in the next 10 years is also calculated by 6%, then the market value of the house is 1.79 million, which is higher than the renter’s wealth; the house will increase substantially by 4 times in the next 10 years, and the rent market value is 400 Ten thousand, five times that of renters; if the housing growth rate plummets in the next 10 years, renters win. In the three cases, only when the house price drops, the renter’s wealth will be higher than the buyer’s wealth, and the rest are higher than the renter’s. According to the current environment, the houseThe price drop will hardly happen.

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