British Petroleum changed the route of its oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, because of fears that Iran would retaliate against its seizure of the tankers, the geopolitical risks continued to rise. The increase in the flow of the North Sea Oilfield and the Druzhba pipeline will curb U.S. crude oil exports and narrow the spread between Brent and WTI. The trend of U.S. oil and oil distribution were similar, and they fell slightly this week for two consecutive trading days. With the demand for crude oil in Asia and Europe becoming saturated, price wars among global crude oil exporters seem inevitable.
BP is worried about its oil tanker being seized by Iran; Saudi Arabia says they thwarted the Red Sea attack
Lang's threats to retaliate against a tanker hijacked by Britain and the news of an attempted attack by the Houthi armed forces supported by Iran in the Red Sea have raised new concerns about potential supply disruptions. Last weekend, BP changed the route of an oil tanker in the Persian Gulf because of concerns that the ship would become a target after the British army hijacked an oil tanker carrying Iranian crude oil last week. At the same time, Saudi Arabia stated that it thwarted an Iran-backed Houthi rebel attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea.
The weak demand for crude oil seems to have offset the geo-risk. U.S. oil has fallen for two consecutive trading days. The impact of OPEC and its allies' measures to extend production cuts is minimal. The Royal Bank of Canada said that the US oil price will be difficult to maintain above 60 US dollars. China’s new refining capacity means that Asia’s gasoline and other fuels have been saturated, limiting the demand for crude oil. In order to achieve a sustained and substantial rebound, we first needTo clean up the weakness of the global refined oil market.
Platts: U.S. crude oil exports contract
The U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA data show that it reached a record in the week of June 21 After the 3.77 million barrels per day, U.S. crude oil exports fell to 2.99 million barrels per day in the week ending June 28.
An analysis report released by S&P Global Platts Energy Consulting on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil exports may fall from recent record highs due to shrinking profit margin incentives, and the North Sea oil field is more normal. The increase in production levels and the flow of the Druzhba pipeline replaced this incentive.
Although Platts Energy predicts that in the week ending July 5, U.S. crude oil exports will rise to 3.15 million barrels per day due to LOOP’s VLCC crude oil exports to Asia, But U.S. crude oilThe decline in profit margins indicates that Singapore refiners may once again seek supplies from Europe. For the week ending July 5, the average profit margin of West Texas Intermediate crude oil WTI in Singapore was US$2.86/barrel, lower than last week’s US$2.97/barrel.
Brent crude oil prices fall to bet on new highs
Weekly data show that fund managers will bet on falling Brent crude oil prices Push up to the highest level since mid-January.
The narrowing of the spread between Brent and WTI is also a factor in the increased attractiveness of Bren's specific price crude oils (such as Forties and Ekofisk), partly due to the increase in North Sea crude oil supply.
Forties, the largest supplier of mixed crude oil in the North Sea Oilfield, is expected to load 16 ships in July and August this year, with a daily output of approximately 310,000 barrels. Overall, it is expected that AugustThe total reserves of the North Sea are 29.4 million barrels, and the daily output is about 948,000 barrels. This is an increase of 800,000 barrels from July, and the daily output in July was about 25,800 barrels.
Congressional hearing Powell may release an eagle
Crude oil investors are still waiting for Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony in Congress this week. The testimony may confuse the outside world. The Fed's interest rate cut plan has a clearer understanding. At the last meeting, the Fed was divided on expectations for this year's interest rate cut, but the market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates this month. However, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko is pessimistic about the outlook for this year. He expects that the interest rate meeting on July 31 is more likely to come to a result of maintaining interest rates unchanged.
If the Fed decides to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, it will stimulate capital inflows into the crude oil market in the short term, and crude oil prices denominated in dollars may rebound. But it also promotes beautyThe export of shale oil from China is unprecedented, and it is bound to be negative for U.S. oil prices in the mid-line. Vice versa, the Fed maintains interest rates to stabilize oil prices.
(Continuous daily US crude oil line)
(Continuous daily line of Brent crude oil)
YihuitongReal-time market software shows that as of 9:21 on July 9th, Beijing time, the main US crude oil contract is currently reported at 57.44 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.40%; the Brent crude oil contract is currently reported at 63.86 US dollars / barrel, a decrease of 0.39 %.