In order to meet the final subsidy deadline, a large number of photovoltaic projects rushed to install "630", and the scene was spectacular. Projects that are connected to the grid before June 30, 2019 can enjoy an electricity price subsidy of $0.0935/kWh for 20 years.
4GW installed in two months
According to the Viet News Agency, as of June 30, Vietnam’s grid-connected photovoltaic projects had accumulated 4,312 MW. In April 2019, only 150MW projects in Vietnam were connected to the grid. After this battle, Vietnam has shown signs of surpassing Australia, which has a steady growth, in its annual new photovoltaic installations.
"In order to cope with this historic workload, the National Electric Power System Coordination Center established a solar energy working group to coordinate the continuous command of the entire dispatch center and mobilize human resources. Regardless of weekends and holidays, three shifts and five shifts to handle these matters. "The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam has said.
According to the data of consulting firm Rystad Energy, the installed capacity of large-scale ground-based solar power stations in Australia increased from 600MW at the end of June 2018 to 2.7GW, a steady increase of four times each month. In the same period, Vietnam’s large-scale ground installed capacity increased from 10MW to 4GW, an increase of 400 times.
As developers must rush to meet the FiT deadline to connect to the grid, in May, Vietnam installed about 1.5GW, which exceeds 60% of large-scale ground-based power station projects rushed to connect to the grid for power generation in June. Rystad pointed out that the average period of construction and commissioning of projects in Vietnam is 275 days, which is much faster than other parts of the world.
Rystad had previously predicted that Vietnam’s installed capacity would increase sharply, but the actual situation is still beyond expectations. According to previous forecasts, Vietnam will be connected to the grid at about 2GW. In fact, according to the Vietnam Electricity (EVN) data quoted by the Vietnam News Agency, Vietnam currently has 82 solar power stations with a total capacity of 4,460MW. This also means that solar power is close to10% of Vietnam’s total power capacity. In addition, there are 13 projects with a total capacity of 630 MW, which are expected to go online by the end of this year.
Rystad is not the only institution that underestimates the prosperity of Vietnam. The consulting agency IHS Markit believes that Vietnam is one of the most promising photovoltaic markets in 2019, and predicts emerging markets such as Argentina, Egypt, South Africa, Spain and Vietnam. The growth of the market will account for about 7% of the market in 2019, about 7 GW. IHS Markit expects to install about 2GW of large-scale ground power station projects this year.
New additions are expected to surpass Australia
Analysts of Rystad Energy believe that Vietnam’s new installed capacity is unexpected, and almost no one thought of Vietnam’s new additions Large-scale ground installed capacity will exceed Australia in the first half of 2019Asia. It is expected that in the second half of 2019, 800MW of solar power will be launched in Australia, but despite this, the annual increase of 3.5GW will still be lower than that of Vietnam.
This figure Surprisingly. The Australian market’s renewable energy targets (RET: Renewable Energy Target) mechanism has been blocked, but since 2016, it has gradually developed into a steadily and flourishing market, especially in large-scale solar energy plus energy storage. In Vietnam, where the photovoltaic development process was insignificant two years ago, after receiving FiT subsidies in April 2017, solar energy development followed.
Subsidy changes after July
After the rush installation is over, it is expected that from July 2019 to June 2020, FIT in the southern region will be reduced by 25%, and in the central region by 15%. The FIT in the northern region remains roughly the same. Rystad Energy analyst said. "From 2020 to 2021, the FIT of all regions will drop another 5%."
Vietnam project distribution
It is expected that the subsidy reduction will cool down some developers, but at that time, more serious players can be screened out At the same time, Rystad analysts said that southern Vietnam’s solar irradiance is 25% higher than the northern irradiance, which is the same as the reduction in subsidies. Therefore, the attractiveness of installed capacity in the region will remain. In addition, the subsidy reduction can help solar energy The project is deployed more evenly to alleviate the bottleneck of the southern power grid.
Hidden worries are still
As the demand for electricity is growing at an annual rate of about 10%, Vietnam It is necessary to add 3.5-4GW of electricity installed capacity each year. “However, in the next two years, onlyThere are approximately 2,000-2,500 MW of traditional electricity and approximately 4,000 MW of unstable renewable energy installed capacity. "The Vietnamese government said. This issue has added uncertainty and challenges to the operation of the grid.
After a period of rapid development, the Vietnamese market will definitely slow down. And this At the same time, the rapid increase in installed capacity has also brought about the hidden worry of grid overload. Vietnam's only public utility power company EVN must find more free space in the grid, otherwise these factories will not be able to produce according to their design capacity.
For more information on the photovoltaic industry, please visit https://www.solarbe.com/ to view
SOLARZOOM Guangshou Yijia