Source: BMW official website
Recently, according to media reports, as early as February this year, they announced plans to jointly develop autonomous driving technology. At that time, the two parties said that they were "discussing the possibility of expanding cooperation". BMW (BMWYY.us) And Daimler-Benz (DMLRY.us) jointly announced that the two sides have signed a long-term strategic cooperation agreement, and a total of 1,200 developers are cooperating to develop autonomous driving technology.
It is reported that the two parties will focus on the development of L4 level autonomous driving technology, including driver assistance technology, highway automatic driving and automatic parking technology.These technologies will be independently applied to their respective company’s cars. It is expected that the new technologies will be applied to mainstream models starting in 2024.
Obviously, the two giants working together to develop autonomous driving technology may bring a certain increase in the potential of the autonomous driving market, and the autonomous driving industry chain may usher in a new round of development and investment opportunities .
The development trend of the self-driving car market is geometric?
Actually, as we have seen, with the development of technology, the technological revolution represented by emerging technologies such as the Internet, big data, and AI is becoming more and more intense At the same time, with the gradual improvement of requirements for environmental protection, energy saving, emission reduction, driving density, and driving safety, people have gradually strengthened their awareness of travel safety, and the automobile industry itself has entered a stage of transformation.
In addition, national politicsThe accelerated implementation of policies and the issuance of autonomous driving licenses have become a key part of the industry. At present, various cities in China are encouraging and supporting the development of the autonomous driving industry. As early as last June, the Guangzhou Municipal Transportation Commission issued the "Guangzhou City Guiding Opinions on Road Testing of Intelligent Connected Vehicles (Draft for Comment)". It is called by the media as the most enlightened driverless road test regulations in China.
One year later, after Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, Guangzhou officially issued 24 autonomous driving road test licenses. The number of issued road test licenses is second only to Beijing and ranks second in the country. So far, all four major first-tier cities have Regarding the “licensing” of autonomous driving, the “road access” for autonomous driving is gradually opening up.
And here, With the support and support of the external environment, coupled with the fierce transformation of its own, self-driving cars have become an inevitable trend in future development. Via Gelonghui apThe p query shows that not only BMW and Daimler have made a difference, in fact, as early as 2017, the three giants of BAT took a fancy to this "cake" to make a difference.
In 2017, Baidu released Apollo1.0 version, and then released Apollo3.0 on July 4, 2018, opening more than 220,000 lines to developers worldwide Code is currently the world's largest unmanned driving open platform. At the same time, Tencent was not far behind. It officially entered autonomous driving in 2017 and obtained a Shenzhen test license in 2018. In April of the same year, it officially signed an intelligent networked car cooperation agreement with Changan Automobile.
The other giant of BAT, Alibaba, is also developing the underlying operating system of the car’s smart city strategy, and it is connected with its own smart city projects, focusing on infrastructure construction in the smart era. p>
On June 25, 2019, according to media reports, Ford-backed self-driving startup Argo AI is expected to invest US$15 million in the next 5 years to establish a self-driving car research center-Carnegie Mellon University’s Argo AI Self-Driving Car Research Center.
On July 3, 2019, at the 2019 Baidu AI Developer Conference, I believe that most people just paid attention to the uproar Water", and in its autonomous driving sub-forum, there is actually another major event-Baidu and BMW, Intel, Audi, Daimler, etc.A total of 11 autonomous driving industry chain companies jointly released the world's first autonomous driving safety white paper-"Automatic Driving Safety First".
It is reported that the white paper provides a clear and traceable system specification for the development and operation of autonomous vehicles for the first time to prove that autonomous vehicles are "safer than the average human driving level" , And specific to components such as cameras, steering systems, etc., in order to ensure "safety first" while the autonomous driving industry develops rapidly, and further promote the healthy and sustainable development of the autonomous driving industry.
Yesterday, Huawei’s application for the Grade A qualification for navigation electronic map production was publicized on the website of the Ministry of Natural Resources. After the publicity period, Huawei will become the 20th company in China that can legally produce autonomous driving maps (high-precision maps). Enterprises, Huawei will be able to develop business development related to autonomous driving.
It is worth mentioning that in In the 5G era, performance advantages such as high speed and low latency may help the development of the Internet of Everything, and the development of the Internet of Vehicles will also increase firepower for the autonomous driving industry. It can be seen that the self-driving pie has gradually been seized and divided by technology giants.
According to the Foresight Industry Research Institute, the global driverless driving market reached US$4.82 billion in 2018, and it will reach US$7.03 billion in 2021. , The market size will increase.
Source: Founder Securities Research Institute
According to BCG forecasts, the global penetration rate of some automated driving systems will reach 12.4% in 2025, and the penetration rate of fully automated driving systems will reach 0.5%; When the time comes to 2030, the data are 15.0% and 9.8% respectively, and the penetration rate has increased significantly.
Looking at the situation in China, according to GGAI monitoring, China’s passenger cars in 2018 The penetration rate of L1 level autonomous driving in new cars is about 14%, and the L2 level is about 5%, totaling 19%. According to relevant national plans, the penetration rate of L1, L2, and L3 autonomous vehicles in the Chinese market will reach 50 in 2020. %, L3 level begins to enter the market; 2025The annual penetration rate of all levels of autonomous driving reached 80%, of which the L2/L3 level reached over 25%, and the L4 level began to enter the market.
Autonomous driving car industry chain and its pain points
The industry chain of autonomous driving system includes perception layer, decision-making layer and execution layer. The perception level includes environmental sensing cameras, infrared night vision, radar, ultrasonic and other components; the decision-making level includes high-precision map positioning, cloud platform, V2X communication, vehicle-mounted platform and other car networking systems; the execution level includes steering, throttle, braking, Lighting and other executive components and systems and integrationCar application.
Automatic The four major players in the driving industry chain include hardware vendors, automakers, communications vendors and platform vendors. Based on the foregoing, according to agency statistics, The penetration rate of China's Internet of Vehicles users is expected to exceed 10%, and the market size will exceed 150 billion yuan. Under the accelerated development of Internet of Vehicles, various intelligent driving industry chains Big players will benefit.
However, although autonomous driving will be the general trend in the future, there are still certain pain points in the process of realization.
The first thing that worries consumers most is autonomous driving. Safety issues, in fact, as early as January 2016, a car owner drove a Tesla and died in a rear-end collision on a high-speed section. Tesla admitted that the vehicle was in automatic operation more than a year after the incident. Driving status; In addition, according to media reports in May 2018 that Tesla autopilot had another accident, consumers behind the frequent accidents could not help but question the safety and reliability of autopilot.
Secondly, Autonomous driving vehicle application technology has certain difficulties. Taking high-precision map as an example, it is one of the core technologies of autonomous driving and is just needed. It is a source of information and information to ensure driving efficiency and safety and avoid potential risks. Basis for key decisionsfoundation. Currently, the development of high-precision maps at home and abroad is showing a bipolar pattern, and there is a gap in market influence, and the expansion of autonomous driving penetration rate may be lagging behind when technology cannot keep up.
Related investment opportunities
On the whole, the development process of domestic auto companies is relatively slow compared to foreign countries, but they are also steadily following Come in. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s “Mid- and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry”, by 2020, the new car assembly rate of DA (driver assistance), PA (partially automated driving), and CA (conditional automated driving) systems will exceed 50%, and network-linked driving assistance systems The assembly rate reaches 10%. By 2025, the new car assembly rate of DA, PA, CA for automobiles will reach 80%, among which the assembly rate of new cars of PA and CA class will reach 25%, and highly and fully autonomous (HA, FA) cars will begin to enterMarket.
Based on the above, with the gradual introduction of relevant policies, the market penetration rate of the autonomous driving industry has gradually increased. At the same time, mature technology and the arrival of the 5G era will bring new empowerment to the autonomous driving industry. The industry may usher in a new round of development, combined with relevant brokerage research reports, related superior companies may receive attention:
Navimap (002405.SZ): The company is The first domestic enterprise to obtain the qualification for producing electronic navigation maps, and the first to engage in the commercial development of electronic navigation maps in China, launched the first navigation electronic map product that meets the international automotive industry quality standards in the Chinese market, a national navigation electronic map database and the nation's largest navigation electronic map production and update network system have been built.
The company’s main business sectors include navigation map industryThe main products include car navigation products, consumer electronics products and related technical services. Among them, the advanced assisted driving and autonomous driving businesses mainly include the provision of ADAS maps, HD map data, high-precision positioning products and overall solutions for autonomous driving, as well as related cutting-edge technology research and development and joint verification.
Source : The company’s financial report
In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 2.134 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.06%; realized net profit attributable to the parent of 479 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.65%;The net cash flow from operating activities was 371 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.01%. In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 522 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.25%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 42.025 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.68%.
Source ：East Fortune
Qianfang Technology (002373.SZ): The company is one of the earliest domestic enterprises to enter the field of urban transportation, and is China’s leading intelligent high-speed solution Supplier, mainly engaged in smart transportation and smart security business, providing coverage for urban transportation, highway transportation, railIntelligent transportation systems in the fields of road transportation and civil aviation, as well as products, services and comprehensive solutions of intelligent security systems based on the full spectrum of video front-end + artificial intelligence back-end.
Source ：Company official website
In 2018, the company achieved revenue of 7.251 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.35%; realized net profit of 763 million yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 63.80%; deducted non-net profit of 638 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 136.28 %. In the first quarter of 2019, revenue was 1.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.60%; net profit attributable to the parent was 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.27%; deducting non-net profit was 125 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117.54%.
Source : Eastern Fortune
Xingyu shares (601799.SH): The company focuses on the research and development, design, manufacturing and sales of automobile (mainly passenger car) lights,It is one of China's main automobile lamp assembly manufacturers and design solution providers, the products mainly include automobile headlamps, rear combination lamps, fog lamps, daytime running lights, etc. Customers include SAIC Volkswagen, German BMW, Dongfeng Nissan, Geely Automobile, etc.
The company achieved revenue of 50.74 in 2018The net profit attributable to the parent was 611 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.91%; the net cash generated from operating activities was 683 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%. In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 1.424 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.21%; realized a net profit of 170 million yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 30.15%.
Source : Eastern Fortune